{"id":3606,"date":"2024-04-16T08:58:43","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T08:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/internationalpulse.net\/?p=3606"},"modified":"2024-04-16T08:58:43","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T08:58:43","slug":"bad-for-business-gulf-states-scramble-to-avert-wider-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/internationalpulse.net\/?p=3606","title":{"rendered":"‘Bad for business’: Gulf states scramble to avert wider war"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The Gulf states’ expensive economic diversification plans rely on a peaceful environment for business and tourism, which is jeopardised by hostilities between Israel and Iran – Copyright Israeli Army\/AFP –<\/small><\/em><\/p>\n

Talek Harris with Robbie Corey-Boulet in Riyadh and Callum Paton in Doha<\/em><\/p>\n

Gulf states are grappling with the widening Middle East conflict as hostilities between Iran and Israel threaten their security and ambitious plans to reshape their economies.<\/p>\n

Leaders of the resource-rich Gulf monarchies engaged in a rapid round of diplomacy after last weekend\u2019s Iranian drone and missile strikes on Israel raised the spectre of a regional conflagration.<\/p>\n

The desert countries lie across the Gulf from Iran, placing them on the doorstep of the latest crisis after months of tensions generated by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.<\/p>\n

US military facilities are scattered around the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have both faced previous attacks on oil facilities by Yemen\u2019s Iran-backed Huthi rebels.<\/p>\n

The Gulf countries share an \u201coverall realisation that conflict is bad for business and avoiding conflict comes now almost at any cost\u201d, said King\u2019s College London Middle East analyst Andreas Krieg.<\/p>\n

On Monday, Qatar\u2019s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, spoke to the Iranian president about the \u201cneed to reduce all forms of escalation and avoid the expansion of conflict in the region\u201d, the official Qatar News Agency reported.<\/p>\n

And on Sunday, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed spoke to Qatar\u2019s emir and the kings of Jordan and Bahrain, state media said, while Saudi Arabia\u2019s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman talked with Iraq\u2019s prime minister.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s foreign minister spoke with his counterpart in Iran, and the Saudi\u00a0defence minister held discussions with his US counterpart.<\/p>\n

Much is at stake for the wealthy, US-friendly Gulf states, whose expensive economic diversification plans, aimed at securing their futures post-fossil fuels, rely on a peaceful environment for business and tourism.<\/p>\n

\u2013 \u2018Wealth of targets\u2019 \u2013<\/p>\n

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has been the biggest spender, pledging hundreds of billions for new cities and leisure attractions as part of Prince Mohammed\u2019s flagship Vision 2030 economic transformation plan.<\/p>\n

\u201cSaudi\u2019s top priority is that the crisis does not escalate,\u201d Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst who is close to the royal court in Riyadh, told AFP, stressing the Gulf\u2019s vulnerability.<\/p>\n

If there is an attack on Iran, Tehran might \u201cbe tempted to retaliate against the GCC given its close proximity and wealth of targets (that are) difficult to protect\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran just learned how difficult it is to target Israel thousands of miles away but the GCC with its proximity and massive size compared to Israel is a different story,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

In Saudi Arabia\u2019s favour is its influence over the US \u2014 which is pushing it to follow the UAE and Bahrain by recognising Israel \u2014 and renewed ties with Iran, which were resumed last year after a lengthy rupture.<\/p>\n

The deadliest ever war in Gaza had already dampened US efforts to broker a Saudi-Israeli normalisation.<\/p>\n

\u201cSaudi will be definitely pushing for the US to pressure Israel for a ceasefire in Gaza and also to not respond to Iranian attacks,\u201d said Umer Karim, researcher of Saudi foreign policy and politics at Britain\u2019s University of Birmingham.<\/p>\n

\u2013 No good choices \u2013<\/p>\n

Meanwhile Oman, which is close to Iran, remains a vital conduit of mediation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And Qatar has leverage as the host of Al-Udeid, the region\u2019s biggest US military base, said Krieg.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen it comes to anything to do with the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandeb, (the Omanis) have deeper networks and are probably the more effective mediator,\u201d he said, referring to strategic waterways in the Gulf and the Red Sea.<\/p>\n

He said the US had not given Gulf mediators \u201cenough credit for how important that relationship has been\u2026 in creating a response from Iran that is, I would say, still quite measured\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cQatar is very particular because of Al-Udeid,\u201d Krieg said, explaining that Doha would likely continue \u201ctelling the Americans, they can\u2019t use their airspace, can\u2019t use their bases to launch attacks against Iran\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat will make it very, very difficult for the United States to actually assist Israel in a potential offensive strike inside Iran,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Washington has reaffirmed \u201cironclad\u201d support for Israel, but a US official said it would not join any potential Israeli counterattack against Iran.<\/p>\n

According to Karim, any further deterioration would leave no good choices for the Gulf.<\/p>\n

\u201cDefinitely the sooner this conflict ends the better it is for all Gulf States,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe conflict is increasingly creating a new regional balance of power\u2026 with Israel backed by the United States on one side and Iran and its proxies on the other side and Gulf states struggling for status and political impact.<\/p>\n

\u201cAn escalation thus puts them in a very difficult position as they don\u2019t want to side with any of the two camps but will be affected regardless.\u201d<\/p>\n

burs\/rcb-csp\/th\/jsa\/kir<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

‘Bad for business’: Gulf states scramble to avert wider war
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