{"id":4355,"date":"2024-04-19T00:13:29","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T00:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/internationalpulse.net\/?p=4355"},"modified":"2024-04-19T00:13:29","modified_gmt":"2024-04-19T00:13:29","slug":"op-ed-is-iran-talking-itself-into-a-nuclear-confrontation-with-israel-it-cant-win-probably","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/internationalpulse.net\/?p=4355","title":{"rendered":"Op-Ed: Is Iran talking itself into a nuclear confrontation with Israel it can\u2019t win? Probably."},"content":{"rendered":"

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A woman walks past a banner depicting missiles bearing the emblem of the Islamic Republic of Iran in central Tehran – Copyright AFP Bastien INZAURRALDE<\/small><\/em><\/p>\n

The dismal depths of human idiocy have found another hobby for the early 21st century \u2013 Starting stupid wars. The Middle East, one of the world\u2019s more popular war zones, is helping with a grim-looking few weeks of pushing and shoving between Iran and Israel.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This inelegant situation includes Iranian threats against Israeli \u201cnuclear sites\u201d<\/strong>. If you\u2019re a military person, you can see a few issues with that statement. Nuclear sites aren\u2019t easy targets. They may well be decoys. The actual nukes could be in the air when they\u2019re hit.<\/p>\n

According to various sources, Iran doesn\u2019t currently have any nuclear weapons<\/strong>. That may or may not be the case, but Iran is hardly transparent when it comes to their nuclear aspirations.<\/p>\n

They could probably buy some nukes from somewhere, of course, and fit them to their missile systems. If that sounds more than a bit iffy, it is. It\u2019s difficult enough to deliver a nuke on systems designed for them. A backyard ICBM or MRBM would be a true horror story, and impossible to disguise from foreign intelligence sources.<\/p>\n

Israel has been continuously saying that any nukes in Iran will be considered legitimate targets. Nobody\u2019s wondering why the Israelis see things that way. The US, meanwhile, would prefer the Gulf not to be a nuclear war zone.<\/p>\n

The current situation has a long, ugly, and murderous history. Iran has been poking Israel with a stick for decades, not very successfully. Proxy wars through local groups like Hezbollah and Hamas have routinely led to a lot of dead people and Israel not budging. Iran is also active in Yemen and around the Gulf states in confrontation with the US and others.<\/p>\n

Iran puts a lot of money into these exercises. All those well-fed guys with guns and millions of dollars\u2019 worth of weapons are the visible side of Iranian power projection. \u00a0Iran projects an image as the ultimate Islamic theocracy, it\u2019s also been the home of various degrees of militancy and dogmatic hostility to the West since 1979.<\/p>\n

\u2026None of which seems to have achieved a damn thing worth mentioning. The Middle East is a longstanding mess thanks largely to politics and religious grandstanding. Iran\u2019s economic issues are well-known<\/strong> and real enough.<\/p>\n

The country is in many ways economically stagnant and out of touch with the world. Iran\u2019s association with the current dilapidated version of Russia is a case in point. Not much has come of it, nor can it. These things are more about publicity than practical.<\/p>\n

\u2026So why provoke Israel? Why are they in such a hurry to trigger a US response?<\/p>\n

There are a few practical issues here:<\/p>\n