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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has a tall order awaiting him in Saudi Arabia, analysts say – Copyright AFP WANG Zhao<\/small><\/em><\/p>\nRobbie COREY-BOULET with Hashem OSSEIRAN in Dubai<\/em><\/p>\nWashington\u2019s top diplomat will travel to Saudi Arabia on Sunday as the deadline approaches on a landmark \u2014 and, analysts say, long-shot \u2014 deal that would see the kingdom recognise Israel.\u00a0<\/p>\n
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken\u2019s visit to Riyadh comes nearly seven months after the eruption of war in Gaza put the brakes on what was intended as a signature foreign policy achievement for his boss, US President Joe Biden.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It also comes as Americans prepare to vote in November on whether to give the 81-year-old Biden a second term, an election process that could scramble what progress has been made on Saudi-Israeli normalisation so far.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In September, before Hamas\u2019s October 7 attack on Israel sparked the war, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News that \u201cevery day we get closer\u201d to a deal that could also bolster the Washington-Riyadh security partnership.<\/p>\n
However Prince Mohammed, Saudi Arabia\u2019s 38-year-old de facto ruler, also said the Palestinian issue was \u201cvery important\u201d for Riyadh, adding: \u201cWe need to ease the life of the Palestinians.\u201d<\/p>\n
As fighting drags on and mediators struggle to lock in a truce, Saudi officials have reiterated their insistence on recognition of an independent Palestinian state.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Princess Reema bint Bandar al-Saud, the Saudi ambassador to Washington, told the World Economic Forum in January that normalisation would be impossible without an \u201cirrevocable\u201d pathway towards that state\u2019s creation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
While it is no surprise Saudi Arabia would link ties with Israel to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, \u201cthe price for normalisation, especially on the Palestinian front, has certainly gone up,\u201d said Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat can be said is that there needs to be something more tangible than theoretical,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn other words, more irreversible steps that are clear-cut, rather than just promises.\u201d<\/p>\n
The US State Department said that Blinken will discuss \u201ca pathway to an independent Palestinian state with security guarantees for Israel\u201d, during talks in Riyadh on Monday and Tuesday.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Progress disrupted \u2013<\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia, home to Islam\u2019s holiest sites, has never recognised Israel and did not join the 2020 US-brokered Abraham Accords that saw its Gulf neighbours Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Morocco, establish formal ties with Israel.\u00a0<\/p>\n
During a debate in 2019, Biden vowed to treat Prince Mohammed as a \u201cpariah\u201d over human rights concerns.<\/p>\n
But after Biden visited the Saudi city of Jeddah and fist-bumped the crown prince in 2022, his administration actively pursued a Saudi-Israeli deal that would build on the Abraham Accords, a foreign policy win for his predecessor Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
The Saudis indicated they would want more than their Gulf peers got, bargaining hard for benefits like US security guarantees and assistance with a civilian nuclear programme with uranium enrichment capacity.<\/p>\n
In the months that followed, Israeli and American officials issued bullish statements, while the Saudis said characteristically little.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Their leverage, strengthened by their status as perceived leaders in the Muslim world, was never in doubt, said Elham Fakhro of the Chatham House think-tank.<\/p>\n
\u201cSaudi Arabia is aware of how badly the Biden administration wants a deal,\u201d Fakhro said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is also aware that no other Arab country holds as much leverage as it does in lobbying for the Palestinians.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Any momentum stalled abruptly with Hamas\u2019s October 7 attack, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,170 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Israel\u2019s retaliatory military campaign to destroy Hamas has killed more than 34,000 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.<\/p>\n
Riyadh has consistently denounced Israeli forces\u2019 conduct in Gaza, accusing them of \u201cunchecked heinous war crimes\u201d just this week.<\/p>\n
\u2013 A tall order \u2013<\/p>\n
Even without the Gaza war, sealing the Saudi-Israeli-US deal would be a tall order.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe US will have to deliver on something and none of Saudi Arabia\u2019s conditions (or requests) are easy,\u201d Fakhro said.<\/p>\n
\u201cA defence pact would have to go through Congress and its approval there is far from certain.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
The rancour of election season in the US makes bipartisan deal-making even more difficult.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In any case, Netanyahu has repeatedly made clear his opposition to a Palestinian state, saying last month that Israelis rejected any attempt to \u201cram\u201d it \u201cdown our throats\u201d.<\/p>\n
Given Saudi Arabia\u2019s position, that means an imminent breakthrough is unlikely.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Long-time observers of Saudi diplomacy stress that should come as no surprise, despite the recent flurry of meetings and statements.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom the beginning, Saudi Arabia was clear: addressing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in a manner that satisfies the Palestinians is a precondition for normalisation with Israel,\u201d said Saudi analyst Hesham Alghannam.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cSaudi Arabia is genuine in its condition that normalisation is linked to the end of Israel\u2019s occupation of Palestinian land.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
Blinken to Saudi as window shrinks on Middle East mega-deal
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#Blinken #Saudi #window #shrinks #Middle #East #megadeal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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